Let me do this once again.

Is that the coin? The coin?

Like a coin? No.

This time around, we have a bag, and in the bag are 2 coins,coin 1 and coin 2.

The coin.

Are you a coin collector?

All of the equally likely events.

Liz... have you got a quid?

My 18month chip.

Change, I mean. Coins.

The tails side is very nice.

She took coins from the fontana?

Here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to grab a random coin with 50 chance.

Let's toss up for it.

Let's decide by coin toss.

Could I see the quarter?

Stacy... I need the coins.

What could you possibly want with those?

The first coin flip might also come up tails, in which case I pick a very different coin.

And then, 1 of the coins is a two sided head coin.

Hey, man, we flipped a coin.

The probability that I got 5 out of 5 heads, given the two sided coin times the probability of the two sided coin b we defined event b as the two sided coin.

There's 3 different things happening.

Let's go back to probability and go back to our simplest of all examples that of a coin flip.

So let's ask an easy quiz. Suppose we do 2 coin flips.

I need, Don Corleone, those politicians you are carrying in your pocket.

But that's the easy part.

Here we have our first sample.

Anyway, let's say I'm going to now flip a coin twice.

We flipped a coin, okay?

FIFTY COINS

We'll flip for it, all right? Call it.

So now what happens is, I'm going to remove one of the coins from this bag, and each coin, coin 1 or coin 2, is being picked with equal probability.

Let me now flip that coin once, and I want you to tell me, what's the probability that this coin which could be 50 chance fair coin and 50 chance a loaded coin.

So once again, we can't call them equally likely events.

This is going to be equal to the probability that you get 5 out of 5 heads given let's call that a normal coin given a normal coin times the probability that you had a normal coin times the probability of

Quickly, give me the following numbers of the probability of coming up tails for coin 1 and for coin 2.

Check all that apply. Also, assume that the probability of heads is neither 0 or 1.

With the Central Limit Theorem, things become really easy.

Dan Jurafsky Does Lufthansa serve breakfast and San Jose? Well, that sounds funny.

Fair coins always come up 50 heads or tails.

There is a solution. The solution is to fake it or more precisely to add fake data.

So s is equal to 84 feet.

And it is equal to well, this is one that we covered in the last video.

Random variables are really ways to map outcomes of random processes to numbers