But so, can anyone guess what's going on here?

Nothing ever happens out of thin air.

What about causality?

Unfortunately, it's not, because I would like to be taller, but I'm not.

And Ha ha, there is a picture and here is I. And what does it matter?

And then the idea of confounds. And the most important concept to take away from this segment is the idea of causality.

Indeed, some writers do not think the relation of brain to consciousness is a causal relation in the first place.

Random representative sampling, independent and dependent variables, double blind, single blind experiments, confounds and causality.

That we could create a classification of the mental illnesses.

And they can do it because they don't link causation and correlation.

And in fact, the sickness did cause you to die, and also effected your decision of whether you go to a hospital or not.

This is optional material for students who would like to gain a little more practice programming and debugging.

The why meant really,

The left hand always is the same and puts sinusoidal tickle.

The problem is that these observational studies.

Because unlike polio, we couldn't get right to the heart of the matter.

If this sounds complicated, we haven't seen much.

The data came back from the United States, from England, from Sweden, from Canada, and it was all the same no correlation, no connection, none at all.

I think we can presume that their relationship had soured somewhat.

And that's one of the examples I'll show you when we do this in R.

And here it's really easy to see that there is something wrong, but jumping to an incorrect conclusion about causality when you see a correlation is the most often made logical mistake.

Let's say I have this bizarre looking function.

You would think later that the ball is the cause for the window to break.

This leads to sort of classic line that you've probably heard before, is correlation does not imply causation.

And of course, others using more sophisticated methods in the literature have controlled for poverty and education and so on.

What's the definition of the Laplace transform?

And what I want for today is for you to remember that the next time someone wants to prove that there is a causal relation between something and something else it can be anything, it can be vaccines and autism, it can be female bankers and the financial crisis, and if they (Laughter) point out to you that there is a very strong relation, remember that it's not enough to have a correlation.

It had to do with what caused all this.

This right here is e to the minus st times f of t.

I, I'm gonna start drawing these path models in the next segment with, with arrows that typically depict causality.

Now, we're about to publish the first study

2 is just one little point in R.

So, you could test that using structural equation modeling.

In this case 2, 3, and 5 are the prime factors of 30.

And indeed, people know the causal links quite well in some of these outcomes.

There are single headed arrows or double headed arrows.

Maybe not when they want it, but they'll get it, by God!

You know, creation is what put that dog in that picture, and creativity is what makes us see a chicken on his hindquarters.

Uh, but again, at least in this example, we're just dealing with correlational data.

It's because we know there's something about fire and firefighters.

If there were, not only would it look like things were moving backward in time but everything we know about causality, cause and effect, the past versus the future, this would all get jumbled together in a way that doesn't really make sense to us.

Females after their first calf is already weaned a lower load.

Opinions have nothing to do with it, sheriff.

Doesn't matter what I think.

Something about why Freddie was sacked, but I can't get a straight answer from either of them.