And Ha ha, there is a picture and here is I. And what does it matter?

Nothing ever happens out of thin air.

And then the idea of confounds. And the most important concept to take away from this segment is the idea of causality.

But so, can anyone guess what's going on here?

What about causality?

And in fact, the sickness did cause you to die, and also effected your decision of whether you go to a hospital or not.

The data came back from the United States, from England, from Sweden, from Canada, and it was all the same no correlation, no connection, none at all.

And they can do it because they don't link causation and correlation.

And we want to come up with a correlation between coverage on one side, and outcome of the run on the other side.

Unfortunately, it's not, because I would like to be taller, but I'm not.

That we could create a classification of the mental illnesses.

And here it's really easy to see that there is something wrong, but jumping to an incorrect conclusion about causality when you see a correlation is the most often made logical mistake.

You would think later that the ball is the cause for the window to break.

But the researchers, they were smart, and they wrote very careful that they had found a correlation, and they didn't know how the causal relation might work, but just to be sure they advised all parents to turn off the lights at night.

The problem is that these observational studies.

And of course, others using more sophisticated methods in the literature have controlled for poverty and education and so on.

The left hand always is the same and puts sinusoidal tickle.

And indeed, people know the causal links quite well in some of these outcomes.

There are single headed arrows or double headed arrows.

Which again, this isn't a true independent variable so we can't really make a causal statement.

The why meant really,

If this sounds complicated, we haven't seen much.

It's because we know there's something about fire and firefighters.

And that's one of the examples I'll show you when we do this in R.

You might not think musicians like Wilson have to deal with friction but they do, too.

Random representative sampling, independent and dependent variables, double blind, single blind experiments, confounds and causality.

You know, creation is what put that dog in that picture, and creativity is what makes us see a chicken on his hindquarters.

Again, we're talking about outliers there's got to be some kind of cause and effect.

So I've been talking about this, suggesting, perhaps, that mind wandering causes unhappiness, but all

Causality is one of the most disputed subject in Philosophy.

Indeed, some writers do not think the relation of brain to consciousness is a causal relation in the first place.

And what I want for today is for you to remember that the next time someone wants to prove that there is a causal relation between something and something else it can be anything, it can be vaccines and autism, it can be female bankers and the financial crisis, and if they (Laughter) point out to you that there is a very strong relation, remember that it's not enough to have a correlation.

I, I'm gonna start drawing these path models in the next segment with, with arrows that typically depict causality.

If you have manageable health problems it doesn't really matter.

I stay out of the politics.

So if we were to multiply three times negative two, it shouldn't matter.

Because unlike polio, we couldn't get right to the heart of the matter.

Let's print russian(14, 11).

The reason why we now study probability and not statistics is because it gives us a language to describe the relationship between data and the underlying causes.

Now, we're about to publish the first study

Because a lot of areas in, in the social sciences, they have to rely on these observational studies. They, they can't do randomized experiments.

These folks are the moneyed interests in Iran, the bankers, the oil people, the bazaaries.

Note, though, that this line would be executed and therefore also appear in the coverage.

Well today, I'm very pleased to report to you that there have been many experiments in task shifting in mental health care across the developing world over the past decade, and I want to share with you the findings of three particular such experiments, all three of which focused on depression, the most common of all mental illnesses.

So people thought that 20 dollars would be way better than five dollars.