It's a death sentence.

That means less than 2 people out of every 100 survive . In addition, it has an abysmal 5 year survival rate.

Chile's catching up!

R2 says the chances of survival are 725to1.

They are still up here.

And, two percent survive.

We'll swap the axis.

And on this axis, GDP.

It was cancer. It was the bad kind.

The year is 1960.

Twenty years ago, doctors would have cut off my leg and hoped, and there was a 15 percent survival rate.

We have effective therapies now.

Over 85 of all pancreatic cancers are diagnosed late.

When I joined as finance minister,

To his forty year old mother, one year is merely 2.5 of her life.

You'll notice they all lived, the ones on the top line that's a 100 percent survival rate.

One fifth the rate of colon and breast cancer, big killers here in America.

And dengue fever has grown in speed quite phenomenally.

What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.

The World Has Changed

In truth table speak, there are 6 outcomes, 1 to 6.

I'm one of the survivors of oceanic flight 815.

Now could we look here instead at the economic situation in the world?

We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.

And the amazing thing about this is that an ant lives only a year.

You're uncertain about what the market will be willing to value it at a year later.

(Laughter)

So let's look at the first metric here, overwintering survival.

In my high school's dormitory, the first years share a room with another student, but starting from the second year, students have individual rooms.

Professor Flitwick, you've known me for five years

So Ph.D. this, and degree there, and the yadda yadda.

We'd been sharing about a year.

The birthrate will continue to decline for years to come.

This photograph's taken 1950s in Saudi Arabia.

Maybe that's 2 and that's 1 like that.

We're comparing two measurements that are fairly commonly used.

And here is my answer. You can really read off the formula that I just gave you.

It turns out, the death rates on death row from all causes, including execution two percent a year.

1 Year

A year?

But you didn't say...

There are countries up here which are very poor.

It bypassed Sweden about two to three years ago, with better child survival.

Arab states, South Asia and sub Saharan Africa.

41 people who were basically outside of being really sick, paying for the one retiree who was experiencing debilitating disease.