So we're in the forecasting business.

Prophets have been forecasting the end of the world for centuries.

So this has important implications both for forecasting and for policy.

In a sense, the group of betters at the racetrack is forecasting the future, in probabilistic terms.

And this is one way to do technology forecasting get a sense of where technology is and then anticipate the next upturn.

Through generous support and partnership scientifically with Google.org and the Skoll Foundation, we were able to start the Global Viral Forecasting Initiative and begin work in four different sites in Africa and Asia.

It turned out that they were aware, as no one else within the company was, of a technological blip that neither the forecasting experts, nor the experts on the ground in China, were even aware of.

From a forecasting perspective, if we know where trade is likely to change, for example, because of the African Growth and Opportunities Act or other policies that encourage trade, we can actually think about which areas are likely to be heavily infected with HlV.

Best Buy, the consumer electronics company, gets all its employees the cleaners, the shop assistants, the people in the back office, not just its forecasting team to place bets, yes bets, on things like whether or not a product is going to sell well before Christmas, on whether customers' new ideas are going to be or should be taken on by the company, on whether a project will come in on time.