So this is a graph of prevalence estimated by UNAlDS, and prevalence based on the mortality data for the years in the late 1990s in nine countries in Africa.

By using this new data, using this information about prevalence over time, we can actually test that.

25 percent prevalence among gay men.

Unfortunately, there's almost no good data on HlV prevalence in the general population in Africa until about 2003.

Ines So why is prevalence still rising?

In Uganda we see the prevalence went down.

And I think that the answer is, we can look at mortality data, and we can use mortality data to figure out what the prevalence was in the past.

The reason that we know that the ABC campaign was effective in Uganda is we have good data on prevalence over time.

Given the prevalence of bite marks, torn flesh, puncture wounds,

Data, data, data...

Bing! That's data. Data, data, data.

In fact, the HlV prevalence rate is 1.3 percent among adults.

Say sorted data is data.

little data, old data, no data. So back in 1995,

Data

Data...

Data

Data

Data

Data

like DNA data or brain data.

Raw data now! Raw data now!

But because people who died this year of AlDS got it a few years ago, we can use this data on mortality to figure out what HlV prevalence was in the past.

looking at wind data and solar data.

Because it is true that there was a decline in prevalence in Uganda in the 1990s.

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