But now I want to actually also question that.

The reason that we know that the ABC campaign was effective in Uganda is we have good data on prevalence over time.

But this leaves us with a big gap in our knowledge.

So this is another way to see this.

But it's not just the mortality from these disorders.

And the way that I'm going to do that is,

But that actually doesn't mean at all that if we gave people more exports, more trade, that that would increase prevalence.

So this is a problem for policy. It was a problem for my research.

So it turns out, if you use this technique, actually your estimates of prevalence are very close to what we get from testing random samples in the population, but they're very, very different than what UNAlDS tells us the prevalences are.

But because people who died this year of AlDS got it a few years ago, we can use this data on mortality to figure out what HlV prevalence was in the past.

When you divide 4 by 36, you get 0.111, or in percent, 11.1 .

We're not just talking about a fluke.

It's not the only place we had any interventions.

So if I asked you, Why don't you go and find me the prevalence in Burkina Faso in 1991?

It's indigenous to China and the Far East, but given that the prevalence of malaria is here in Africa,

We subtract 4 x 0.1, which is 0.4, which is 0.6.

But an association The higher people's blood levels of vitamin D are, the less heart disease they have, the less cancer.

So this is a graph of prevalence estimated by UNAlDS, and prevalence based on the mortality data for the years in the late 1990s in nine countries in Africa.

Now, I'm not trying to pick on pancake mix.

And I think that the answer is, we can look at mortality data, and we can use mortality data to figure out what the prevalence was in the past.

Unfortunately, there's almost no good data on HlV prevalence in the general population in Africa until about 2003.

So if you combine the intuition in this figure with some of the data that I talked about before, it suggests that somewhere between 25 percent and 50 percent of the decline in prevalence in Uganda actually would have happened even without any education campaign.

This is a police photo. That's actually my car.

That's the mortality rate of sick people in the hospital.

This shows you in areas with low malaria, medium malaria, high malaria what happens to the number of sexual partners as you increase HlV prevalence.

Did you know that the average model weighs 23 less than the average woman?

I suppose so, but it might mean that you It means that, statistically speaking, one of the most impressive records of failure is destined to be broken.

And the current state of the art in predicting an epidemic if you're the CDC or some other national body is to sit in the middle where you are and collect data from physicians and laboratories in the field that report the prevalence or the incidence of certain conditions.

And it's not just circles, either.

The office for disease control reported a 10 percent spread.

You will be a help.

It is well known that the city has a high crime rate.

If you look at the blue line, the areas with low levels of malaria, you can see in those areas, actually, the number of sexual partners is decreasing a lot as HlV prevalence goes up.

Areas with a lot of economic activity with a lot of roads, with a lot of urbanization those areas have higher prevalence than others.

One fifth the rate of colon and breast cancer, big killers here in America.

I can look at my risk for sample type 2 diabetes.

I know a little about it because one of my friends is in the nursing program.

The acceptance rates for famous universities are low, so examinees must try their hardest to get in.

Like most diseases, it has its own symptoms.

Using a campaign that encouraged people to abstain, be faithful, and use condoms the ABC campaign they decreased their prevalence in the 1990s from about 15 percent to 6 percent over just a few years.

Why would someone leave their home to go for a brisk walk in a toxic neighborhood?

Now, just one more thing.

So, all of the talk today is going to deal with two general questions.

It's a little different than the way we think about brain disorders

Hospital. Hospital.