The reason that we know that the ABC campaign was effective in Uganda is we have good data on prevalence over time.

But this leaves us with a big gap in our knowledge.

But now I want to actually also question that.

So this is another way to see this.

And the way that I'm going to do that is,

But that actually doesn't mean at all that if we gave people more exports, more trade, that that would increase prevalence.

But it's not just the mortality from these disorders.

So this is a problem for policy. It was a problem for my research.

But because people who died this year of AlDS got it a few years ago, we can use this data on mortality to figure out what HlV prevalence was in the past.

When you divide 4 by 36, you get 0.111, or in percent, 11.1 .

So it turns out, if you use this technique, actually your estimates of prevalence are very close to what we get from testing random samples in the population, but they're very, very different than what UNAlDS tells us the prevalences are.

It's not the only place we had any interventions.

It's indigenous to China and the Far East, but given that the prevalence of malaria is here in Africa,

So if I asked you, Why don't you go and find me the prevalence in Burkina Faso in 1991?

We're not just talking about a fluke.

We found that after they adopted it the complication rates fell 35 percent.

Now, I'm not trying to pick on pancake mix.

But an association The higher people's blood levels of vitamin D are, the less heart disease they have, the less cancer.

So this is a graph of prevalence estimated by UNAlDS, and prevalence based on the mortality data for the years in the late 1990s in nine countries in Africa.

Unfortunately, there's almost no good data on HlV prevalence in the general population in Africa until about 2003.

Using a campaign that encouraged people to abstain, be faithful, and use condoms the ABC campaign they decreased their prevalence in the 1990s from about 15 percent to 6 percent over just a few years.

Decrease the magnification of the document view.

And I think that the answer is, we can look at mortality data, and we can use mortality data to figure out what the prevalence was in the past.

Heart disease used to be the biggest killer particularly men in their 40s.

So if you combine the intuition in this figure with some of the data that I talked about before, it suggests that somewhere between 25 percent and 50 percent of the decline in prevalence in Uganda actually would have happened even without any education campaign.

That's the mortality rate of sick people in the hospital.

We subtract 4 x 0.1, which is 0.4, which is 0.6.

Heart disease used to be the biggest killer, particularly for men in their 40s.

This is a police photo. That's actually my car.

Desist yourself, you braggart!

Doctor, the patient is desatting.

This shows you in areas with low malaria, medium malaria, high malaria what happens to the number of sexual partners as you increase HlV prevalence.

And the current state of the art in predicting an epidemic if you're the CDC or some other national body is to sit in the middle where you are and collect data from physicians and laboratories in the field that report the prevalence or the incidence of certain conditions.

You will be a help.

The proletarian infant mortality rate has dropped by 12 per cent.

(Laughter)

If you want the really big numbers,

And it's not just circles, either.

The year is 1960.

So in summary, the questions you want to ask are how big can this be, how much of it can we get, what's the growth rate of the market, is the market itself declining or is it in flux or is it taking off? and most importantly here is talk to customers and the sales channel, and next important is you can get some pretty good market size estimates by competitive approximation if it's an existing or resegmented market, or even if we're going to clone a market outside the US.

I suppose so, but it might mean that you It means that, statistically speaking, one of the most impressive records of failure is destined to be broken.

Hardwired switch mounted under the dock.

I hoped to prove that by decreasing the first,

Of course it has no clue that it is exactly over here.

Good luck with sweeps.