And the way that I'm going to do that is,

It's indigenous to China and the Far East, but given that the prevalence of malaria is here in Africa,

Malaria is a disease that mosquitoes carry.

But now I want to actually also question that.

The reason that we know that the ABC campaign was effective in Uganda is we have good data on prevalence over time.

But this leaves us with a big gap in our knowledge.

I'm going to look across areas with different levels of malaria.

If you look at the blue line, the areas with low levels of malaria, you can see in those areas, actually, the number of sexual partners is decreasing a lot as HlV prevalence goes up.

So this is another way to see this.

But it's not just the mortality from these disorders.

We failed three other times.

But that actually doesn't mean at all that if we gave people more exports, more trade, that that would increase prevalence.

So this is a problem for policy. It was a problem for my research.

So it turns out, if you use this technique, actually your estimates of prevalence are very close to what we get from testing random samples in the population, but they're very, very different than what UNAlDS tells us the prevalences are.

But because people who died this year of AlDS got it a few years ago, we can use this data on mortality to figure out what HlV prevalence was in the past.

When you divide 4 by 36, you get 0.111, or in percent, 11.1 .

We're not just talking about a fluke.

It's not the only place we had any interventions.

So if I asked you, Why don't you go and find me the prevalence in Burkina Faso in 1991?

So it was everywhere.

There are an awful lot of things that you'd like to distinguish among.

They're an integral part of the food web, eating flies, ticks, mosquitoes, and other disease vectors, thus, protecting us against malaria, dengue fever, and other illnesses.

We subtract 4 x 0.1, which is 0.4, which is 0.6.

But an association The higher people's blood levels of vitamin D are, the less heart disease they have, the less cancer.

CA And malaria's even further behind?

So this is a graph of prevalence estimated by UNAlDS, and prevalence based on the mortality data for the years in the late 1990s in nine countries in Africa.

Now, I'm not trying to pick on pancake mix.

And so as these elements come together,

And I think that the answer is, we can look at mortality data, and we can use mortality data to figure out what the prevalence was in the past.

Unfortunately, there's almost no good data on HlV prevalence in the general population in Africa until about 2003.

Now, Artesunate is a very effective drug at destroying the parasite in the early days of infection.

Even if you only cared about AlDS in Africa, it might still be a good idea to invest in malaria, in combating poor indoor air quality, in improving maternal mortality rates.

So if you combine the intuition in this figure with some of the data that I talked about before, it suggests that somewhere between 25 percent and 50 percent of the decline in prevalence in Uganda actually would have happened even without any education campaign.

Malaria is carried by mosquitoes.

We know that that works.

So we thought,

This is a police photo. That's actually my car.

That's the mortality rate of sick people in the hospital.

What you should worry about is whether our dead petty officer, whose blood was all over the dog, 'cause he might have had some transmittable disease like herpes or hepatitis or malaria.

Every year a million and a half people die of a completely preventable disease.

And so that's why that priority has been set.

But that alone doesn't give us the road map.

This shows you in areas with low malaria, medium malaria, high malaria what happens to the number of sexual partners as you increase HlV prevalence.

Did you know that the average model weighs 23 less than the average woman?

Malaria.