But now I want to actually also question that.

The reason that we know that the ABC campaign was effective in Uganda is we have good data on prevalence over time.

But this leaves us with a big gap in our knowledge.

So this is another way to see this.

But it's not just the mortality from these disorders.

And the way that I'm going to do that is,

But that actually doesn't mean at all that if we gave people more exports, more trade, that that would increase prevalence.

So this is a problem for policy. It was a problem for my research.

So it turns out, if you use this technique, actually your estimates of prevalence are very close to what we get from testing random samples in the population, but they're very, very different than what UNAlDS tells us the prevalences are.

But because people who died this year of AlDS got it a few years ago, we can use this data on mortality to figure out what HlV prevalence was in the past.

When you divide 4 by 36, you get 0.111, or in percent, 11.1 .

We're not just talking about a fluke.

Point to Point

It's not the only place we had any interventions.

So if I asked you, Why don't you go and find me the prevalence in Burkina Faso in 1991?

It's indigenous to China and the Far East, but given that the prevalence of malaria is here in Africa,

We subtract 4 x 0.1, which is 0.4, which is 0.6.

But an association The higher people's blood levels of vitamin D are, the less heart disease they have, the less cancer.

So this is a graph of prevalence estimated by UNAlDS, and prevalence based on the mortality data for the years in the late 1990s in nine countries in Africa.

Now, I'm not trying to pick on pancake mix.

Scott Stoddard has 27 points in the championship exactly the same as JeanPierre Sarti.

And I'm going to be talking, to begin with, as I said, about diarrheal disease organisms.

Point

Points

Oxygen content 4.7 richer than Earth standard.

And I think that the answer is, we can look at mortality data, and we can use mortality data to figure out what the prevalence was in the past.

Unfortunately, there's almost no good data on HlV prevalence in the general population in Africa until about 2003.

18 minutes is an absolutely brutal time limit, so I'm going to dive straight in, right at the point where I get this thing to work.

So if you combine the intuition in this figure with some of the data that I talked about before, it suggests that somewhere between 25 percent and 50 percent of the decline in prevalence in Uganda actually would have happened even without any education campaign.

This is a police photo. That's actually my car.

That's the mortality rate of sick people in the hospital.

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Wow she is a goddess

Breaking Point.