The wind can often be unpredictable

And they estimated that in 2008,

These are old faculty salaries.

Just as Gonta predicted, the construction didn't stop.

I predicted this ambush

We have no idea what he'll do when he gets in that room with Burnett.

But as theories go, it had a problem.

There's also a measurement update step where we use the measurement z.

In India, I once met a man who predicted his own death right down to the number and placement of the bullets that killed him.

For example, a number of respected economists did not expect the financial collapse of 2008.

But I'm not engaged in doing that.

This was utterly unforeseeable.

There's no randomness involved at all, but it's not entirely predictable.

But then he predicts that you predicted that.

We did not know about this life system.

How can we possibly have the slightest idea what to expect?

Your uncertainty shrinks to 3.99, which is slightly better than the measurement uncertainty.

Here, I'm mostly just assuming still observational studies.

It's structured as an X coordinate, a Y coordinate, and also a heading direction, and these 3 values together comprise a single guess, but a single guess is not a filter.

I don't predict stock markets OK, it's not going up any time really soon.

And who knows?

You obviously do what the precautionary principle suggests, you try to anticipate it, but after anticipating it, you constantly asses it, not just once, but eternally.

And I found that this was shockingly fun.

Difficult question, simple answer nothing.

And the reason that we need to use science is because then we can reproduce what we're doing it's not just wisdom or guesswork.

There's no reason why I would expect 51 heads or 49 nine tails, although that could happen.

You have foreseen this

Anticipation.

Suppose he predicts you'll go there.

Before, when we just did simple regression, that was our equation.

Is that good or bad?

And in this example, I wanna use working memory capacity to predict, SAT.

Now we just repeat. We look at the next measurement. We weight particles accordingly.

Take upstairs.

We're expecting resistance

So it re shows the brain makes predictions and fundamentally changes the precepts.

Now that you worked the math, you know exactly how to implement this.

But then he predicts that you'll predict what he predicted too.

They can keep this information straight and that means that we can process the information.

Forecast

That last downward notch in the red line is not actual data.

You were right all along. You were right before anybody.

Sounds so simple.

For the past five years, this guy's predicted 88 .

It's sort of like ding, ding, ding.