They are changing rapidly, but not predictably.

Can be worse, can be better.

I think, is the reconciliation of two fundamental human needs.

And this is what the inevitable problem looks like.

I am just going to show you two. So we have, our first one is uh, we can predict why from the mediator variable.

And what I want to talk to you about today, and share with you, is that our healthcare system, our medical system, is just as bad at predicting what happens to people in it patients, others as those scouts were at predicting what would happen to Billy Beane.

So... With a peek into our future, Natalie Keener.

If we look into the future what's clear is that you could walk into the future blindfold.

And who knows?

That's where, according to my analyses, the Iranians were at the beginning of this year.

This should be very familiar to you.

And there's another example.

But we have to do it in a way that is sensitive to meeting the food security needs of the future and the environmental security needs of the future.

I don't predict stock markets OK, it's not going up any time really soon.

It is not mine to foretell the future.

That is a difference in correlations.

In some problems that isn't a plausible model.

Dear Mr. White, due to unforeseen circumstances,

Forecast

And at this point, we decided

Try to feel his next movement.

So now you should be able to take a Markov chain and compute by hand or write a piece of software the probabilities of future states.

You take a look at this, this is not based on statistics.

Monthly estimates

Do research where two models are competing against one another.

These are old faculty salaries.

There's also a measurement update step where we use the measurement z.

So let's talk about our first scenario here, where let's say this curve, people didn't expect prices to change for my e book and now all of a sudden, people expect there's a change in expectation.

Take upstairs.

We're expecting resistance

The 20th century, the last hundred years, is riddled with disastrous examples of times that one school or the other tried to explain the past or predict the future and just did an awful, awful job, so the economics profession has acquired some degree of modesty.

That's a bit unusual.

We need to delve into this mass of anatomy that we've been compiling to understand where the changes are occurring and what this means.

Who can predict what will happen in the future?

The projection of digital fabrication isn't a projection for the future we are now in the PDP era.

Build a perception of that, because by the time your perception of the near future occurs in your brain, the near future will have arrived and you'll have a perception of the present, which is what you want.

Just two simple regressions and model three is the multiple regression with both predictors in there.

Once we've got this, we can almost use this as a petri dish to start having conversations about which areas of the city were more susceptible than others and what police tactics could be used if this were ever to happen again in future.

And then I'll observe again the 2.

In a sense, the group of betters at the racetrack is forecasting the future, in probabilistic terms.

What is your model getting wrong?

Is that good or bad?

Some designers don't design objects, products, things that we're going to actually use, but rather, they design scenarios that are object based.

And then he projected into the future where this was headed unless we made some adjustments.

Here are my best guesses. Okay?