But so, can anyone guess what's going on here?

And then the idea of confounds. And the most important concept to take away from this segment is the idea of causality.

Nothing ever happens out of thin air.

And Ha ha, there is a picture and here is I. And what does it matter?

What about causality?

Unfortunately, it's not, because I would like to be taller, but I'm not.

The data came back from the United States, from England, from Sweden, from Canada, and it was all the same no correlation, no connection, none at all.

And they can do it because they don't link causation and correlation.

The problem is that these observational studies.

Again, we're talking about outliers there's got to be some kind of cause and effect.

The why meant really,

The left hand always is the same and puts sinusoidal tickle.

And in fact, the sickness did cause you to die, and also effected your decision of whether you go to a hospital or not.

There are single headed arrows or double headed arrows.

And what I want for today is for you to remember that the next time someone wants to prove that there is a causal relation between something and something else it can be anything, it can be vaccines and autism, it can be female bankers and the financial crisis, and if they (Laughter) point out to you that there is a very strong relation, remember that it's not enough to have a correlation.

And here it's really easy to see that there is something wrong, but jumping to an incorrect conclusion about causality when you see a correlation is the most often made logical mistake.

Indeed, some writers do not think the relation of brain to consciousness is a causal relation in the first place.

Random representative sampling, independent and dependent variables, double blind, single blind experiments, confounds and causality.

That we could create a classification of the mental illnesses.

But the researchers, they were smart, and they wrote very careful that they had found a correlation, and they didn't know how the causal relation might work, but just to be sure they advised all parents to turn off the lights at night.

So if we were to multiply three times negative two, it shouldn't matter.

Because a lot of areas in, in the social sciences, they have to rely on these observational studies. They, they can't do randomized experiments.

So what? It doesn't matter to me.

You would think later that the ball is the cause for the window to break.

It's because we know there's something about fire and firefighters.

And of course, others using more sophisticated methods in the literature have controlled for poverty and education and so on.

A lot of them were vegetarian, so maybe it had something to do with their diet, or something else with their lifestyle, you know.

Because unlike polio, we couldn't get right to the heart of the matter.

If this sounds complicated, we haven't seen much.

And indeed, people know the causal links quite well in some of these outcomes.

I think we can presume that their relationship had soured somewhat.

It's none of my business.

And that's one of the examples I'll show you when we do this in R.

You know, creation is what put that dog in that picture, and creativity is what makes us see a chicken on his hindquarters.

But I fail to see how any of this is relevant to Sara Tancredi and the fact that she aided and abetted, that she jumped bail...

So they felt worse.

We still have this hypothesis characterizing the error.

They measure some correlation between what the parents do, how the children turn out and assume a causal relation that the parenting shaped the child.

Something about why Freddie was sacked, but I can't get a straight answer from either of them.

But even with all these data linking disgust sensitivity and political orientation, one of the questions that remains is what is the causal link here?

You've found out. All right.

Was it derek's fence, or what?

This is some kind of drug war?

What might be the causal connections between the early developing skills and the later developing ones?

These two factors are independent of each other.